Texas Pan American

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	334.0
Current RPI:	334
Expected SOS:	327
Current SOS:	327
Current Record:	7-21
Expected Record:	7-21
Current Conf Record:	4-11
Expected Conf Record:	4-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-15
Current OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC RPI:	288
Expected OOC SOS:	258

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-21	334.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Pan American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-17	UTSA (237.0)	CUSA	A	62-63	W	100%
11-26	Utah (20.0)	P12	A	85-48	L	0%
11-28	Alabama St. (258.0)	SWAC	N	79-91	L	0%
11-29	North Dakota (310.0)	BSky	N	78-60	W	100%
12-4	Houston (239.0)	Amer	A	72-58	L	0%
12-6	Sam Houston St. (82.0)	Slnd	A	78-59	L	0%
12-13	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	66-60	W	100%
12-17	Saint Louis (272.0)	A10	A	75-69	L	0%
12-19	Creighton (151.0)	BE	A	75-60	L	0%
12-21	Nebraska Omaha (300.0)	Sum	A	77-72	L	0%
12-30	Duquesne (222.0)	A10	A	78-72	L	0%
1-2	Kent St. (94.0)	MAC	A	74-54	L	0%
1-10	Chicago St. (333.0)	WAC	H	64-59	W	100%
1-12	UTSA (237.0)	CUSA	H	43-68	L	0%
1-15	Seattle (280.0)	WAC	A	70-47	L	0%
1-17	Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)	WAC	A	66-53	L	0%
1-22	Utah Valley (308.0)	WAC	H	54-72	L	0%
1-24	Grand Canyon (274.0)	WAC	H	73-72	W	100%
1-31	New Mexico St. (103.0)	WAC	A	53-48	L	0%
2-5	UMKC (295.0)	WAC	A	70-45	L	0%
2-7	Chicago St. (333.0)	WAC	A	78-73	L	0%
2-12	Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)	WAC	H	54-66	L	0%
2-14	Seattle (280.0)	WAC	H	68-57	W	100%
2-19	Grand Canyon (274.0)	WAC	A	64-59	L	0%
2-21	Utah Valley (308.0)	WAC	A	72-49	L	0%
3-4	New Mexico St. (103.0)	WAC	H	48-69	L	0%
3-7	UMKC (295.0)	WAC	H	53-51	W	100%
3-12	UMKC (295.0)	WAC	N	70-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Pan American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Pan American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Pan American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Pan American	WAC	26.45	26.45	24.55	24.55	-13.47	-13.47
UMKC	WAC	6.18	6.18	35.71	35.71	-1.77	-1.77
Seattle	WAC	4.59	4.59	48.15	48.15	-0.17	-0.17
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.48	4.48	65.52	65.52	1.39	1.39
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	4.48	4.48	32.14	32.14	-1.60	-1.60
Chicago St.	WAC	4.47	4.47	14.81	14.81	-3.15	-3.15
Utah Valley	WAC	4.41	4.41	26.92	26.92	-2.03	-2.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	4.35	4.35	51.85	51.85	0.16	0.16
UTSA	CUSA	3.57	3.57	42.31	42.31	-0.55	-0.55
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	2.03	2.03	37.04	37.04	-0.53	-0.53
North Dakota	BSky	1.88	1.88	22.22	22.22	-1.04	-1.04
Saint Louis	A10	1.88	1.88	30.00	30.00	-0.75	-0.75
Duquesne	A10	1.87	1.87	34.48	34.48	-0.58	-0.58
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.85	1.85	71.43	71.43	0.79	0.79
Utah	P12	1.85	1.85	73.33	73.33	0.86	0.86
Creighton	BE	1.85	1.85	40.62	40.62	-0.35	-0.35
Lamar	Slnd	1.85	1.85	44.00	44.00	-0.22	-0.22
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.85	1.85	61.54	61.54	0.43	0.43
Houston	Amer	1.79	1.79	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
Kent St.	MAC	1.79	1.79	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.30	0.30	67.74	67.74	0.11	0.11
Idaho St.	BSky	0.28	0.28	17.86	17.86	-0.18	-0.18
UTEP	CUSA	0.27	0.27	68.75	68.75	0.10	0.10
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.25	0.25	62.07	62.07	0.06	0.06
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.25	0.25	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.25	0.25	58.33	58.33	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.24	0.24	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.19	0.19	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Rice	CUSA	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.18	0.18	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.16	0.16	86.67	86.67	0.12	0.12
Texas St.	SB	0.16	0.16	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.16	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.15	6.90	6.90	-0.13	-0.13
North Texas	CUSA	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.15	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.15	0.15	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.13	0.13	25.93	25.93	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	18.75	18.75	-0.08	-0.08
Montana	BSky	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.13	79.31	79.31	0.07	0.07
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	91.18	91.18	0.10	0.10
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	6.90	6.90	-0.10	-0.10
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	87.10	87.10	0.09	0.09
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Tulsa	Amer	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.09	0.09	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.09	0.09	81.25	81.25	0.06	0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.07	74.07	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.09	0.09	76.67	76.67	0.05	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.07	-0.07
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.07	0.07	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	55.56	55.56	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
IPFW	Sum	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	100.00	100.00	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	90.91	90.91	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
NJIT	ind	0.03	0.03	56.00	56.00	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.86	75.86	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01